True gurus

You must meet him (a guru), a follower advised me. “He’s doing great work — and I’m part of that great work. We’ve uplifted hundreds in this village, thousands in that district, millions altogether. We’ve transformed convicts. We’ve changed lives, even souls. Meet him, write about us, give us publicity.”
I get to hear this monologue once a week or oftener. Couple of times, in my naivete, I even went out of my way to get some gyan, become a ‘better person’, learn to get in touch with my spirit. All in vain.

Opinion in The Indian Express, March 26, 2007

Feeling homesick?

The numbers are scary. As an Indian Express story on March 19 revealed, a person who 18 months ago had taken a 7.5 per cent 20 year loan for Rs 20 lakh to buy a house and would be paying an EMI of Rs 16,111, would have his future generations paying it in perpetuity if the EMI did not rise. Because of the sharp and steady increase in home loan interest rates, from 7.5 per cent then to 11 per cent today, and assuming this householder did not want to increase EMI, tenure rises from 20 years when begun, to 30 years at 9.5 per cent to 70 years at an interest rate of 10 per cent. Beyond this rate, the interest component of the EMI (which comprises interest and principal) rises beyond Rs 16,111. Meaning, unless the EMI is increased, he will be in a perpetual debt trap.

Opinion in The Indian Express, March 21, 2007

It’s a flat, flat world

The 541 point, or 4 per cent, crash in the Sensex on Wednesday coincided with P. Chidambaram’s fourth budget under the UPA administration. But that’s just where the coincidences end. The reasons for this fall lie outside the Budget, outside Parliament, outside the Indian economy — they lie in China, Philippines, Brazil, Mexico and, of course, the US.

Opinion in The Indian Express, March 01, 2007

Markets dive but why this could be an overreaction

NEW DELHI, FEBRUARY 28 : No big-bang reforms. No cut in tax rates. No major change in tax slabs. And barring the needless increase in dividend distribution tax (DDT), an impractical, inflation-contending strategic cut in cement, extension of minimum alternative tax (MAT), and an incentive-killing application of Fringe Benefit Tax to ESOPs (employees’ stock option plan), no major change worth writing home about.
Just the right formula for keeping a long-term household budget, riding long-term high economic growth, in place.

Story in The Indian Express, March 01, 2007

Good news aplenty, just don’t talk of inflation

New Delhi, February 27 : For anyone wanting to gauge the pulse of the Government today, Economic Survey 2006-07 would be a useful tool. All policy-defining keywords --- inflation, growth, special economic zones (SEZs), infrastructure and even pension reforms --- have been discussed, keeping the governing coalition’s priorities and achievements in mind. In short, this ‘economic’ survey has far more ‘political’ undertones than many in the past.

Story in The Indian Express, February 28, 2007

Profit his engine, Lalu cuts fares, keeps key reforms still reserved

New Delhi, February 26 : Sharp in short-term money making, strong in medium-term strategy, but weak in long-term vision, Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s fourth Railway Budget 2007-08 chugs on the tracks he charted four years ago. It transports record-breaking profits and freight carriage; most importantly, it delivers the lowest-ever operating ratio. Lalu’s budget yearned for attention in the Lok Sabha — but he had to yell his way.
“Rs 20,000 crore,” he shouted. “We have made a record profit of Rs 20,000 crore,” as if this feat would silence an Opposition that had decided to let the Bofors gun drown his Budget. And if the Opposition didn’t dither, Lalu, the performer, didn’t yield an inch of the centrestage.

Story in The Indian Express, February 27, 2007

Infrastructure’s a 3-letter word

This month will see three important policy decisions being taken. As the Budget session approaches, the troika of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, Railway Minister Lalu Prasad and Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel could help pave the way to keep the India growth story on track. The keyword for this troika: infrastructure. The key expression of this keyword: public private partnerships (PPP).

The numbers are huge — $320 billion to be invested in India’s infrastructure, spread out over the next five years if we are to sustain the 9-10 per cent growth rate, says Chidambaram. That’s about Rs 14,08,960 crore, or 40 per cent of India’s GDP. Not an amount the Government can organise through taxes (public outcry) or borrowings (already standing at Rs 20,59,234 crore). Private capital is needed for which four big constraints have to be resolved: creation of bankable projects, introducing new financial instruments, regulatory framework for PPPs, development of managerial skill. The budget will reveal much on this front.

Opinion in The Indian Express, February 07, 2007